Last Update: January 31, 2020

With the 92nd Academy Award nominations now announced, we’re taking a look at Best Actor and ranking the contenders to see who’s most likely to win. As is typically the case, this category was quite stacked in 2019. Cinephiles could make a strong lineup out of people who were snubbed, including Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) and Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name) delivering surprising bounce back performances. Even a couple of people recognized by the Screen Actors Guild, Taron Egerton and Christian Bale, came up short in their Oscar bids.

While Best Picture remains fairly open with a few frontrunners surging ahead of the field, Best Actor is a category that appears to be all locked up. That takes some of the drama out of making predictions, but as we saw last year in Best Actress (when Olivia Colman upset Glenn Close), there is always the opportunity for a surprise. Without further ado, here are our rankings of the Best Actor nominees, from most likely to least likely to take the trophy home.

This was the top five from the original version of this list published in July 2019: Tom Hanks, Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, Michael B. Jordan, and Taron Egerton. DiCaprio is the only initial pick who made it through, but Hanks was nominated in Best Supporting Actor for his A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood performance.

Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

Odds: -2220

More than a decade after the late Heath Ledger won a posthumous Oscar for playing the Joker in The Dark Knight, another cinematic iteration of the Clown Prince of Crime is set to win an Academy Award. One of the few things about Joker that just about everyone can agree on is Joaquin Phoenix delivered an excellent performance as Arthur Fleck, fully transforming himself into a man on the brink of insanity. Phoenix was typically committed to his role, finding the proper balance between sympathy and villainy to craft a truly chilling and well-rounded character. He’s been sweeping the awards circuit so far, picking up key wins at the Golden Globes and SAG.

It seems highly unlikely Phoenix will be snubbed by the Oscars again. Not only does he have an overdue case building up (Joker is his 4th career nomination), Joker is also the most-nominated title of the year with 11. The Academy will want to give it something big, and Best Actor is the most likely spot. Remember, when Close lost Best Actress last year, she was The Wife’s lone nomination. Phoenix headlined an awards juggernaut that has widespread support across the board.

Adam Driver - Marriage Story

Odds: +1600

Driver returns to the Oscars following his Best Supporting Actor nomination last year (for BlacKkKlansman), but he’s probably going to come up short again. Despite turning in what’s arguably his career-best performance in Marriage Story, Driver hasn’t been able to pick up the necessary precursor wins to solidify his case. Losing at both the Globes and SAG (where he lost to Phoenix) essentially seals his fate. However, there remains a (very) outside chance at an upset here.

In 2016, Denzel Washington won the SAG Award for Best Actor, but lost the Oscar to Casey Affleck. That’s the only instance this past decade where SAG and Oscar didn’t line up (so it’s hard to call that a precedent), but it’s something. The only difference there is that Affleck beat Washington for the Golden Globe that year, whereas Driver has spent the season watching Phoenix collect hardware. Odds are, he’ll have to wait to win his first Oscar.

Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Odds: +6000

DiCaprio finally snagged his elusive first Oscar back in 2015 for The Revenant, and he’s back in the race this year. He earned high marks for his turn as Rick Dalton in Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and did excellent work that was equal parts heartfelt and humorous. But the Academy isn’t ready to give DiCaprio a second Oscar just yet. Much like Driver, DiCaprio scored all the necessary nominations during the season, but kept coming up short. It’s Phoenix’s year.

What hurts DiCaprio’s chances at pulling off an upset is the fact his co-star Brad Pitt is cruising towards a Best Supporting Actor win and is arguably Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s MVP. That isn’t to say Pitt outshined DiCaprio (both are great), but voters clearly favor one leading man over the other. And DiCaprio no longer has that dark “overdue” cloud hanging over his head that plagued him for years, so even if Joker hadn’t come out this year, the Oscars would probably be looking elsewhere. They have other places in mind to reward Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

Odds: +9000

The last Best Actor winner to not appear in a Best Picture nominee was Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) back in 2009. That stat alone puts Pryce at a distinct disadvantage. The Two Popes has three nods under its belt, but it’s not in the running for the Academy’s top prize. The only way Pryce could realistically be in this race is if he was picking up precursor awards, and that hasn’t happened. He wasn’t even nominated at SAG. Pryce’s Oscar nomination was surprising, as he beat out a Golden Globe winner (Taron Egerton) and the co-star of a Best Picture contender (Christian Bale).

Sadly for Two Popes fans, there’s virtually no precedent for how Pryce can pull off an upset. It’s a shame, because this is the veteran actor’s first nomination. This might have been his only shot at an Oscar, but hopefully another good part or two comes across his desk and Pryce can find himself in the race once more.

Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory

Odds: +7000

Another first-time nominee, Banderas snagged a Best Actor spot with his performance in Best International Feature nominee Pain and Glory. But he’s in the same boat as Pryce here. Losing the Globe (to Phoenix) and being snubbed entirely by SAG means his chances of winning are slim-to-none.

Still, given the sheer amount of competition Banderas faced, it’s very impressive he was able to crack the field. It speaks to how many voters liked Pain and Glory. In another year (i.e. one where Parasite wasn’t a new release), it might have had a good shot at winning Best International Feature.

 

More: 2020 Best Picture Oscar Predictions