Last Update: February 4, 2020
With the 92nd Oscar nominations now out, we’re taking a look at Best Director to see who has the best chance of winning on Sunday. At the outset of 2019, the rest of the film industry must have been thrilled none of the Three Amigos had a new movie this past year, meaning Best Director was wide open. Indeed, the field this year was a who’s who of well-known auteurs elevating their craft to new heights. One could probably make a stellar lineup drawing from those snubbed by the Academy, like Taika Waititi, Greta Gerwig, and Noah Baumbach. 2019 was an excellent year for film and there were several great names to choose from.
Ultimately, voters went with the five filmmakers we’ll detail further in this space. As is the case with most of the major categories, the Oscar precursors have essentially sapped any drama and intrigue out of this race. Best Director appears to be one man’s to lose, but there’s always the possibility for an upset. So now, we rank the Best Director nominees in order of most to least likely to win.
Our top five on the original version of this list published in October was Quentin Tarantino, Martin Scorsese, Sam Mendes, Baumbach, and Waititi. We had three of the five actual Oscar nominees back then.
Sam Mendes - 1917
Odds: -500
Mendes’ 1917 was one of the final shoes to drop this awards season, and it looks like Hollywood saved the best for last. The World War I drama has emerged as the clear frontrunner on the circuit and is poised to pull off something that’s increasingly rare these days: a Picture/Director sweep. It’s become fairly common for the Academy to split the two, typically giving Best Director to the film that’s (arguably) a greater technical achievement (The Revenant, Roma, etc.). This year, it appears that film is one and the same. 1917 won Best Picture at the Golden Globes and PGA Awards, putting it in the driver’s seat for the top Oscar. And Mendes is all but guaranteed to land Best Director.
Bolstered by his ambitious vision to present 1917 as if it was shot in one continuous, unbroken take, Mendes is sweeping the season thus far. He won Best Director at the Globes and DGA Awards. The only time in the past decade the DGA winner didn’t also take home the Oscar was 2012, the year Ben Affleck was curiously snubbed for Argo. Other than that strange outlier, DGA and Oscar have lined up every year since 2002. All that’s to say, it’d be unprecedented for Mendes to lose now.
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Odds: +1000
One of the most popular and influential directors of his generation, Tarantino is a two-time Oscar winner in Best Original Screenplay, but he’s never won in this category. With his tenth (and final?) film on the way, the Academy is running out of opportunities to give Tarantino his Best Director trophy. As an artist, he’s primarily known for his snappy dialogue and writing memorable characters, but he showed a real maturity to his directing on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, a lovingly crafted ode to a bygone era that transported viewers back to the 1960s with intricate detail and incredible vision.
Sadly for Tarantino fans, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood doesn’t appear to be the one to get him over the hump. He’s gone home empty handed (at least for Best Director) at all the major shows, so it’s unlikely he’ll break through at the Oscars. Considering Tarantino’s victory in Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes, he stands a chance at winning his third writing Oscar this year, but will have to wait for Best Director.
Bong Joon-Ho - Parasite
Odds: +350
The term might be a bit overused, but Parasite is truly unlike any movie audiences saw in 2019. With Bong’s deft hand guiding the story along, the film combines timely social commentary with humor, drama, and thrills. Parasite is difficult to classify in one particular genre given the twists and turns it takes, starting off as one type of film before seamlessly transitioning into another. With a lesser filmmaker behind the camera, Parasite probably wouldn’t have worked as well, but Bong demonstrated once again he’s a master of his profession, blending universal subject matter with impressive technique (the peach montage is state-of-the-art). International films usually have an uphill climb in Best Picture and Best Director, but Bong’s a contender in both.
As for winning Best Director, that’s another matter. Like Tarantino, Bong’s netted the necessary precursor nominations, but no wins. Awards bodies seem content to give him their equivalent of Best International Film, which is an Oscar Bong is all but guaranteed to win. He’s also a threat in Best Original Screenplay (winning there at the Writers Guild), so it’s difficult to see him getting Best Director too. Something else to keep in mind is Parasite remains one of the better bets for Best Picture (it could thrive on a preferential ballot), so perhaps there will be a split, with Mendes winning Best Director and Bong landing Best Picture.
Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
Odds: +2200
With anyone else, The Irishman could have been an unmitigated disaster, but Martin Scorsese delivered yet another amazing crime epic. The legendary helmsman should be in his twilight years, but he’s as viable and enthusiastic as he was back when he was doing Taxi Driver and Raging Bull. Even by Scorsese’s lofty standards, The Irishman is a remarkable achievement. It’s a 3.5-hour gangster saga that doesn’t feel its length, requiring extensive use of digital de-aging visual effects so the veteran cast could play their characters across decades. Like his friend George Lucas, Scorsese pushed the technological envelope to new frontiers, and the results were nothing short of spectacular.
While the National Board of Review named The Irishman 2019’s best film, other awards shows haven’t been so kind to it. That lack of luck with the precursors means Scorsese has no real shot of winning at the Oscars. If he still had the (long) overdue cloud hanging over his head, then he’d probably be picking up trophies. But Scorsese got that monkey off his back years ago with The Departed, so voters are looking elsewhere. Admittedly, that’s not the best criteria to decide awards, but it’s the way the Oscars have worked for a while.
Todd Phillips - Joker
Odds: +5000
Love it or hate it, there’s no denying Todd Phillips had a vision for Joker and saw it through. He brought a twisted, dark, and disturbed Gotham City to life in a way that resonated with general audiences to the tune of $1 billion worldwide (the first time that’s ever happened for an R-rated film) and took a stranglehold of the zeitgeist in the fall. Joaquin Phoenix has (rightfully) earned much praise for why Joker was as successful as it was, but Phillips deserves a lion’s share of the credit as well. It’s funny to think about now, but WB was very hesitant to move forward with Joker, and even gave Phillips a smaller budget in an effort to deter him from moving forward with the project. But the director stuck to his guns and made something that people will be talking about (for better or worse) for a long time.
Phillips was nominated for Best Director at the Golden Globes, but was snubbed by DGA. Missing out there is what costs him any real chance at winning the Oscar. The last time the Academy’s Best Director winner was not nominated for the DGA Award was all the way back in 1949, when Joseph L. Mankiewicz won over Robert Rossen. So, Phillips would have to make really incredible history here. Joker’s proven the naysayers wrong time and time again, but this seems highly unlikely.
More: 2020 Best Actress Predictions
